We are live with another UFC breakdown and I am absolutely stoked for this upcoming UFC 274 slate! We have two title fights: the main event lightweight championship between Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje as well as the strawweight title between Rose Namajunas and Carla Esparza. I will also give my take on Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson in this breakdown.
Advertisement
If you’re interested in my full analysis on every fight on the slate, as well as other fantasy and betting related content, you can always find that on my site DailyFanMMA. You can also reach me on Twitter at BrettAppley.
Let’s begin!
Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje
This is undoubtedly going to be a war for as long as it lasts. Oliveira earned the belt with a knockout victory against Chandler, and followed that up with a submission victory against Dustin Poirier in December. Oliveira now holds the record for the most finishes in UFC history with 18, and he holds the UFC record for submissions as well with 15.
| Charles Oliveira | Justin Gaethje | |
|---|---|---|
Odds | -175 | +145 |
SSLpM | 3.44 | 7.5 |
SApM | 3.13 | 7.81 |
Striking Defense | 52% | 55% |
Takedowns/15 min. | 2.5 | 0 |
Takedown Defense | 57% | 73% |
Oliveira is an incredible talent, and it’s been a wonderful journey to watch him transform from a fighter who couldn’t fight through adversity, to one who has thrived doing so.
I used to knock him on that front endlessly. He lost inside the distance four times in a span of six fights in 2015-2017, and it was tough to believe he could ever change. Since that point, Oliveira has won 10 consecutive bouts and is still seemingly improving.
Not only is Oliveira a world-class submission grappler, he’s an awesome wrestler as well. He’s landing 2.50 takedowns per 15 minutes and has really grown in that area of the game. He’s also a very dangerous striker, and lands 3.44 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.13 per minute.
Nobody is perfect and I still do have concerns. My main concern here is that while Oliveira has pushed through adversity recently, he still does face a lot of it. He was definitely hurt by Chandler in the early portion of that fight. And he was honestly getting beaten up by Poirier for the first round of that fight too.
Poirier even knocked him down in the first round. It just wouldn’t be that surprising to see other fighters have success against Oliveira in boxing range. It wouldn’t be shocking to see other fighters hurt Oliveira. He’s more likely to survive these exchanges now than he used to be, but he’s liable to get knocked out at some point again in the future.
Advertisement
His next challenger, Gaethje, is one of the most damaging strikers the sport has ever seen. Gaethje is known for going to war with every single opponent he faces, and that’s where he thrives.
To make my point, Gaethje is coming off an absolute dogfight with Chandler for three rounds, that saw both fighters badly hurt at different points, and Gaethje was disappointed that he and Chandler weren’t allowed to “fight to the death.” That’s the kind of mindset this guy carries, and he simply won’t be phased by any attack that comes his way.
I thought Gaethje may actually have a shot to beat Khabib Nurmagomedov when the two squared off for the lightweight belt in 2020, and that loss to Khabib is my biggest hesitation when trying to make a case for Gaethje to beat Oliveira on Saturday.
Gaethje comes from a D1 wrestling background, so in theory, he should be able to defend takedowns. Officially, he is defending takedowns at 73 percent. His first level takedown defense seems adequate, and it’s very possible he can defend the first attempt Oliveira throws at him.
My problem is that when Gaethje got taken down by Khabib, he looked completely out of his element. He let Khabib mount him instantly, and he wasn’t fighting defensively at all. Khabib submitted him very easily.
I don’t think it was a case of Khabib’s dominant display of skill either. Conor McGregor fought Khabib much tougher on the mat, as an example. To me, it looked like Gaethje just is not a comfortable submission grappler and is vulnerable on his back.
Against Oliveira, that’s a problem. I honestly believe that if Oliveira takes Gaethje down once, or takes his back at any point, this fight probably ends. Oliveira seems extremely likely to win this fight by submission.
Of course, it’s not a 100 percent guarantee that Oliveira can take him down. Maybe Gaethje can scramble up once or twice, and inflict enough damage in the interim to win the fight. He throws devastating leg kicks, which may impact Oliveira. Gaethje damaging Oliveira is a very realistic outcome, and I do think he’s a live underdog in this matchup.
Advertisement
But overall, I have to lean moderately toward Oliveira. His defensive numbers are still solid, and he doesn’t absorb strikes at a high rate. Gaethje absorbs 7.81 significant strikes per minute which is an insane ratio for a guy with nearly 10 UFC fights. I think Oliveira can stay safe for a while on the feet, though eventually I do expect he’ll need to grapple to win cleanly.
And I think that grappling success comes sooner or later. He’s shown he doesn’t even need pure takedowns to win. He can take the back standing. He can roll into bottom position and look for a sweep. He is levels ahead of Gaethje as a submission grappler, and the most likely outcome here is that he can have success in an early exchange and finish the fight.
On BetMGM, Oliveira is the favorite at -175, which is an implied win rate of 63.64 percent. I have him capped as a heavier favorite than this, and I think there’s a slight amount of value in betting Oliveira straight.
I also think betting Oliveira to win ITD at +110 or by submission at +140 are props that are likely to hit. If Gaethje wins, I would expect it to come by TKO, which is a prop lined at +200 or better across the industry.
This is a phenomenal fight and should be enjoyable for as long as it lasts.
Rose Namajunas vs. Carla Esparza
Personally, I may be looking forward to the rematch between Namajunas and Esparza even more so than the main event, and I am picking Esparza outright to upset the champion.
| Rose Namajunas | Carla Esparza | |
|---|---|---|
Odds | -225 | +185 |
SSLpM | 4.01 | 2.34 |
SApM | 3.88 | 2.75 |
Striking Defense | 59% | 53% |
Takedowns/15 min. | 1.78 | 3.53 |
Takedown Defense | 51% | 48% |
The pair last squared off in 2014, when the strawweight division was first introduced to the UFC, and Namajunas and Esparza were the finalists from that season of The Ultimate Fighter. Esparza was able to land five takedowns in that fight, beat Namajunas up from top position, take her back, and secure a rear naked choke in the third round.
Since that time, Namajunas has gone on to become one of the best female fighters in the history of the promotion, defeating Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Weili Zhang twice, among other impressive victories.
Advertisement
Esparza has also climbed her way back up into title contention, which surprised me after her two consecutive losses to Claudia Gadelha and Tatiana Suarez. Esparza was unable to get her takedown game working in those matchups, and Gadelha and Suarez are both levels ahead of Esparza physically.
Since then, Esparza has won five consecutive fights, most recently beating Marina Rodriguez and Yan Xiaonan, two solid prospects that many thought would eventually contend for a title. The bottom line is that Esparza is still among the best pure wrestlers in this division, and unless you can stuff her takedowns, you’re not going to have much success.
Esparza is now averaging 3.53 takedowns per 15 minutes, and her top game has improved dramatically. She is fierce with her ground-and-pound, and she controls position very well.
I also used to consider Esparza very weak as a range striker. She would flinch and looked very uncomfortable trading punches. It’s still not a strength of hers by any stretch, but she’s clearly more comfortable and believes in her own skill set more.
Namajunas is still going to have advantages over Esparza while the fight plays out on the feet. In fact, Namajunas likely wins a stand-up fight convincingly.
Namajunas lands strikes at a higher volume than Esparza at 4.01 per minute compared to 2.34 per minute. Namajunas has a legitimate kicking game, and is simply a more effective striker, whereas boxing for Esparza is a means to an end.
I think the public will just look at the first fight between Namajunas and Esparza, and say Namajunas has improved a ton and therefore the fight will look different. She has faced and beaten legitimate competition like Jedrzejczyk and Zhang, and Esparza has not.
My issue is that the fight still comes down to whether Namajunas can defend takedowns, and scramble up effectively, and I honestly don’t think we should be confident in her ability to do those things.
Advertisement
Namajunas is defending takedowns at a career rate of 51 percent, which is really poor. In her last fight against Zhang, Namajunas was taken down five times and controlled for a few minutes.
Zhang is not a strong wrestler, yet she was able to land takedowns at a 45 percent rate. She mounted Namajunas. She took Namajunas’ back. It’s impossible for me to watch that fight and think Esparza cannot duplicate Zhang’s success.
Granted, Namajunas should have advantages basically everywhere else. Esparza’s path to victory is limited in that sense, and it’s not a guarantee that she wins every round.
Esparza also only defends takedowns at 48 percent, and I think it’s possible Namajunas could earn some top position of her own. Esparza tends to get bruised and bloody a lot, and the optics may be in favor of Namajunas as well.
For me, it’s less of a case where Esparza is guaranteed to win this fight, and more of a case where this is a very winnable matchup for her and I think she’s a legitimate value compared to her current betting line.
On BetMGM, Esparza is the underdog at +185, which is an implied win rate of 35 percent. That doesn’t make any sense to me at all. I would favor Esparza outright in this matchup, albeit slightly, but that’s more than enough value for me to take a stab at this underdog line.
The most important aspect of fighting is being able to control where the fight takes place, and as much as I love Namajunas, her takedown defense and scrambling is quite weak. Against an opponent who has made a career out of landing takedowns and controlling opponents, including Namajunas herself, I think we should be giving more respect to Esparza this weekend.
Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson
Ferguson, one of the lightweight division’s longest reigning title contenders, will get one more shot against the upper-echelon with a matchup against Chandler.
| Michael Chandler | Tony Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|
Odds | -400 | +310 |
SSLpM | 5.17 | 5.15 |
SApM | 4.98 | 3.78 |
Striking Defense | 44% | 59% |
Takedowns/15 min. | 1.73 | 0.42 |
Takedown Defense | 71% | 67% |
Ferguson won 15 out of 16 fights in a span dating from 2011 to 2019, which included an interim title victory over Kevin Lee, and wins against Rafael Dos Anjos, Anthony Pettis and Edson Barboza. He’s always been a whirlwind of action, spamming strikes at a high rate, with a dangerous submission grappling game. That style has broken many opponents, and he owes a large part of his success to cardio and durability alone.
Advertisement
Years of wars have taken a toll on him though. Injuries have plagued him inside and outside the Octagon. He doesn’t have the same form that he used to.
Ferguson has now lost three consecutive fights to Gaethje, Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. To be fair, those are all elite opponents, and it shouldn’t be a black mark on his resume that he wasn’t able to get his hand raised there.
On the other side, it should also be worth noting that his style was never suited to easily control and clearly win rounds. He’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu but he only averages 0.42 takedowns per 15 minutes, and only defends them at 67 percent.
The fact that he’s earned six submission wins in the UFC speaks to his skill set, but it’s not a method of victory that’s ever going to be sustainable against the best in the division when his pure wrestling is not impactful.
We’ve also seen his infamous durability start to fade, and he took a ton of damage in his five-round bout against Justin Gaethje in 2020, forcing a referee stoppage in Round 5.
These factors do not give me a ton of confidence in his chances against Chandler, who is known for physicality, explosive power punching and strong wrestling. Chandler burst into the UFC with a vicious knockout win over Dan Hooker in his debut, proving that his longstanding success in Bellator would translate to better competition. He’s since lost to Oliveira and Gaethje.
I have to be honest, I am still much lower on Chandler than the public. I do not typically invest in fighters who are dependent on early damage, and I’m especially suspicious of fighters who slow down dramatically when they don’t secure those early finishes.
To his credit, Chandler survived a full three rounds against Gaethje, and you can argue his cardio and durability looked better there. He still showed me a lot of issues that I was worried about heading into that matchup, and ones I am worried will continue to plague him against good opposition.
Advertisement
The major problem with Chandler is that he is too explosive. He has a ton of knockout power, but he can’t strike consistently for three rounds because using power zaps his energy. He also has a D1 wrestling background, and can land takedowns, but those use a lot of energy as well.
It’s turned him into a fighter who typically has success early, and fades late. Against competition who he can take down and lay on top of, he can still survive and win decisions. Against opponents who push him, he starts to fade, he gets hurt and he’s been finished on more than one occasion.
It only took one round for Chandler to completely exhaust himself against Oliveira. He had a lot of success in that round. He hurt Oliveira and was winning wrestling exchanges. It cost him too much energy and ultimately, the title, as he was knocked out immediately in the second round.
Against Gaethje, Chandler had a lot of success early. The first round was super competitive and Chandler damaged Gaethje at multiple points. But he started to fade because he couldn’t get the finish. He took a ton of damage and lost cleanly, and truthfully he was lucky the ref didn’t step in to stop the fight in Round 2.
Listen to these numbers. Chandler defended strikes from Gaethje at a 49 percent rate in Round 1. He defended strikes at a 37 percent rate in Round 2. In Round 3, Chandler only defended strikes at an 18 percent rate!
It’s a major red flag for me. He stayed conscious but his defense dropped horribly from round to round, and it’s because of the style he fights with. He’s still more than capable of winning by early knockout and landing takedowns here or there, but he’s not a fighter I’ll ever be confident in down the stretch.
On BetMGM, Chandler is a heavy favorite at -400, which is an implied win rate of 80 percent. I wouldn’t be touching this line, not even in parlays. I think Chandler can knock Ferguson out early, or lay on him to win a decision, but I don’t see value on this betting line.
Advertisement
For what Ferguson lacks in form, he still has the cardio. He still lands 5.15 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.78 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate. I think it’s possible he can outstrike Chandler down the stretch if he survives Round 1.
I also am concerned about Chandler’s wrestling late. If he’s tired, even if he can take Ferguson down, he might be the type to be susceptible to Ferguson’s submission game. The cardio really scares me here.
Ferguson lined at +310 is still a risk, and I’m not actively looking to bet on him here. I prefer him as a cheap DFS target, but if you are looking for action for fun, I do think Ferguson is a live underdog here based on the cardio and durability dynamics.
That’s all for this UFC 274 card, if you have any more fights you want to chat about, you can let me know in the comment section below! I will see you in two weeks for Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira!
(Photo of Charles Oliveira: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57kmtwa21iZ3xzfJFrZmltX2WBcMHFnGRrb2RivbOxw6KaraGfo8Buu8OdqmabmJa%2FrbHSZqaloaaatrOtjKKqZpldrLyzwMeyZJ%2BZpqS%2FqsDEZq2sZZqqwLW1zWaemp2knbemew%3D%3D